For years, U.S. strategy has relied on the assumption that sanctions, economic pressure, and military force would weaken adversaries and trigger internal collapse. But as economist Michael Hudson has argued, that logic misunderstands how nations respond under existential threat. “This war will decide whether the U.S. controls the global oil trade — or whether the world becomes independent of it,” Hudson said, framing the conflict as a turning point in the global economic order.
For years, U.S. strategy has relied on the assumption that sanctions, economic pressure, and military force would weaken adversaries and trigger internal collapse. But as economist Michael Hudson has argued, that logic misunderstands how nations respond under existential threat. “This war will decide whether the U.S. controls the global oil trade — or whether the world becomes independent of it,” Hudson said, framing the conflict as a turning point in the global economic order.
In this week’s episode of the MintCast podcast hosted by MintPress director Mnar Adley, we are joined by Iranian political analyst Ali Alizadeh to talk about Trump’s miscalculation in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran which went from shock & awe to strategic failure. Twenty-seven days into the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, what was expected to be a swift and decisive campaign is instead spiraling into a far more dangerous and unpredictable confrontation with massive econimic global fallout because of the closure of the Straight of Hormuz. Early assumptions that Iran’s leadership could be “decapitated” through targeted airstrikes—triggering internal collapse—have proven dramatically misplaced.
In this week’s episode of the MintCast podcast hosted by MintPress director Mnar Adley, we are joined by Iranian political analyst Ali Alizadeh to talk about Trump’s miscalculation in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran which went from shock & awe to strategic failure. Twenty-seven days into the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, what was expected to be a swift and decisive campaign is instead spiraling into a far more dangerous and unpredictable confrontation with massive econimic global fallout because of the closure of the Straight of Hormuz. Early assumptions that Iran’s leadership could be “decapitated” through targeted airstrikes—triggering internal collapse—have proven dramatically misplaced.
Openly declaring its intent to illegally occupy southern Lebanon, Israel finds itself in a costly ground battle with Hezbollah, from which there are indications Syria may soon be roped in. This is born from the understanding that in order to successfully weaken the Lebanese resistance, the Israeli military must penetrate the Bekaa Valley area and that’s why Israel wants Syria’s military to invade Lebanon’s border and attack Hezbollah, aiming to go after what is labelled critical infrastructure belonging to the Lebanese group. The Trump administration has directly put pressure on Syrian leader Ahmed al-Shara’a to do just that but growing resistance inside of Syria against Israel is pushing back.
Openly declaring its intent to illegally occupy southern Lebanon, Israel finds itself in a costly ground battle with Hezbollah, from which there are indications Syria may soon be roped in. This is born from the understanding that in order to successfully weaken the Lebanese resistance, the Israeli military must penetrate the Bekaa Valley area and that’s why Israel wants Syria’s military to invade Lebanon’s border and attack Hezbollah, aiming to go after what is labelled critical infrastructure belonging to the Lebanese group. The Trump administration has directly put pressure on Syrian leader Ahmed al-Shara’a to do just that but growing resistance inside of Syria against Israel is pushing back.
Yet despite the intensity of Israel’s bombardment, Hezbollah has not collapsed. On the contrary, the group continues to demonstrate significant military capability. Reports indicate that just in the last three weeks, 50 Israeli tanks have been destroyed, and Hezbollah units remain active across multiple fronts. Far from being diminished, the organization is widely believed to retain a force numbering in the tens of thousands—potentially exceeding the size of the Lebanese army itself.
Yet despite the intensity of Israel’s bombardment, Hezbollah has not collapsed. On the contrary, the group continues to demonstrate significant military capability. Reports indicate that just in the last three weeks, 50 Israeli tanks have been destroyed, and Hezbollah units remain active across multiple fronts. Far from being diminished, the organization is widely believed to retain a force numbering in the tens of thousands—potentially exceeding the size of the Lebanese army itself.
Terror Alarm promotes itself as a service that can predict who will carry out attacks, based on their social media posts, and can share that information with governments and police forces. However, its own source code, netizens have exposed, dictates which groups are considered worthy of support and which are “opposed entities.” While the UAE, Turkey, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Israel and “Jews and Zionists worldwide” are considered positive groups, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, the Chinese Communist Party are all placed on their own private terrorist list.
Terror Alarm promotes itself as a service that can predict who will carry out attacks, based on their social media posts, and can share that information with governments and police forces. However, its own source code, netizens have exposed, dictates which groups are considered worthy of support and which are “opposed entities.” While the UAE, Turkey, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Israel and “Jews and Zionists worldwide” are considered positive groups, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, the Chinese Communist Party are all placed on their own private terrorist list.
Great strategic importance has been attached to the islands, with Iran deciding to develop their military capabilities there since at least 2008. In particular, Abu Musa, the largest of the three islands, is home to a broad range of Iranian military capabilities. Former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, credited as one of the architects of Tehran’s “Mosaic Defence” strategy, even labelled Abu Musa Island as “Iran’s beating heart” in the Persian Gulf at the beginning of 2019.
Great strategic importance has been attached to the islands, with Iran deciding to develop their military capabilities there since at least 2008. In particular, Abu Musa, the largest of the three islands, is home to a broad range of Iranian military capabilities. Former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, credited as one of the architects of Tehran’s “Mosaic Defence” strategy, even labelled Abu Musa Island as “Iran’s beating heart” in the Persian Gulf at the beginning of 2019.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that the move to free up 140 million barrels of oil was aimed at preventing China gaining from the situation. “That’s about 10 days to two weeks of supply that the Iranians had been pushing out that would have all gone to China,” he said. “In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days as we continue this campaign.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that the move to free up 140 million barrels of oil was aimed at preventing China gaining from the situation. “That’s about 10 days to two weeks of supply that the Iranians had been pushing out that would have all gone to China,” he said. “In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days as we continue this campaign.”
