In overwhelming numbers, Americans no longer identify with the traditional Republican or Democratic ideologies. According to a June 29 Pew Research Center for the People & the Press typology, only 36 percent of the general public identify as being either solidly conservative or solidly liberal, while 54 percent are described by Pew as “less partisan, less predictable.”
The 54 percent include government-conservatives, social issues-centralists or -liberals; the financially-stressed, or what Pew calls “hard-pressed skeptics;” the next generation left, who are liberal on social issues but show less support for the social safety net; and the faith and family left.
While this year’s results suggest a marginal rise in the popularity of the parties, it can still be inferred that most Americans are not satisfied by what they are being offered by the major parties.
“I think the American people feel totally out of touch with the government, which is being run completely by the Republicans and the Democrats,” Michael Engmann, author of the conservative third party-advocating book “Greed is Good, Big is Bad: How to Fix America’s Problems,” told MintPress News. “They feel that neither party is representing them. The people are not seeing any resolution to the problems they are having.”
With 57 percent of all registered voters and 43 percent of the politically engaged not falling into one of the two partisan categories, according to Pew Research, questions of whether the American people are being best represented have never grown so persistent and relevant.
The two-party system
While third parties exist in the United States, the current system is designed to take advantage of a majority/minority parties structure. Take, for example, the Electoral College. While the Electoral College does not preclude third-party candidates from running for the presidency, it does establish an exceptionally high bar to clear. In the case that no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the electoral votes — which is likely in a three-candidate race — the House of Representatives picks the winner of the presidential race and the Senate picks the winner of the vice presidential race. As it is unlikely for a third party to control either house under the current political climate, the only way a third party candidate can win the presidency is with an absolute majority.
With most federal commissions and boards established along Democratic/Republican power-sharing schemes, and with federal laws guaranteeing Democratic and Republican primacy on federal balloting and in federal election processing, including participation and control of presidential election debates, an American political system without the Democrats and Republicans as the two primary choices seems unimaginable — but many feel that that is exactly the way forward.
“[The] American political system is designed to make it difficult for third or minor parties to succeed. In recent decades we have seen independent presidential candidates such as John Anderson and Ross Perot rise and fall,” said Mark Rush, the Stanley D. and Nikki Waxberg Professor of Politics and Law at the Williams School of Commerce at Washington and Lee University.
“Some scholars celebrate this. It prevents the proliferation of narrow, ideologically distinct political parties — such as those that might spring from right-wing movements like the Tea Party — and forces such movements to join the ranks of the two larger parties, moderate their views, and form successful governing coalitions under the umbrella of the Democrats or Republicans,” he told MintPress, noting, “Unfortunately, there is no doubt that the major parties have atrophied as a result of the lack of true challenges outside of the duopoly they operate.”
A formula for a third-party win
For a third party to succeed and possibly replace either the Republicans or Democrats, a very specific formula has to play out, as explained to MintPress by James Hoopes, the Distinguished Professor of History at Babson College.
First, one party must have divisions so extreme that the party is in danger of ripping itself apart, with the divisions being framed in terms of ideology, the role of government and/or economic interests. While the divisions between the Tea Party and the GOP are severe, they are not as strong as the divisions with the Whig Party — the last major power to lose parity. Favoring state control over investing power in the federal government and the Congress over the presidency, the Whigs were ultimately destroyed by the question of slavery expansion in the West, with the anti-slavery movement going as far as to block the re-nomination of the incumbent president, Millard Fillmore. Many northerners — who would go on to form the Republican Party — actually feared that slavery expansion would constitute a “slave power conspiracy” to the extent that they felt war was unavoidable.
Second, there must be a clear majority in the country opposed to the agenda of the radical wing of the fractured party. This must create a situation in which the only way forward is for the mainstream — as the “non-crazies” in this scenario — to leave the party and create a new party in opposition.
Finally, there must be a strong leadership to sell the new party. For example, Abraham Lincoln was critical for promoting the “Cotton Whigs” — as the Republicans were referred to at the time — as an answer to the slavocracy. While there are ideological “non-crazies” in the Republican Party that have the credibility to fight for a third party — Jeb Bush, for example — going forward with such a plan would mean severing all ties to the Republican Party — a risk few in Bush’s position would take.
This last point is particularly poignant, considering the current relative weakness of the Tea Party. “Seems more likely that Hillary Clinton or even Elizabeth Warren can defeat Rand Paul or his ilk in 2016, discrediting the Republican crazies and giving Republican centrists a chance to rebuild a middle of the road approach for 2020, just as the victory of George Bush in 1988 — the third straight defeat for the Democrats — opened the route for Clinton and the moderate Democrats in 1992,” Hoopes told MintPress.
Yet the way forward may not be in the pursuit of third parties, but in opening the political conversation to outside voices.
“As any political party grows larger, eventually it will grow infiltrated with corruption, with a disconnect forming between the national party and its base or even the national party and its state parties,” Christina Tobin, founder and chair of the Free & Equal Elections Foundation, told MintPress. “While it is feasible to find people with integrity and accountability at the local level, at the national level, there is the realization that parties attract people who want power.
“So, I have shifted in the direction of giving independents a fair and equal chance of winning. I feel that compromising have created the situation we are in today, where the parties seem not to serve anyone, in particular,” she continued.
In making this argument, Tobin referred to the Jan. 8 Gallup Poll findings that a record-high 42 percent of Americans identify themselves as independents. “There seems to be a rise for independence from the partisan system. I think that there will be a major shift in that individuals will no longer be able to hide behind parties. On the bigger issues, such as drone use, NSA and the NDAA [National Defense Authorization Act], we tend to agree, and it is more important that the best voices are heard in the political conversation and not just the most partisan.”
The Tea Party as a third party
While the obstacles challenging the success of a competitive third party are monumental, that does not impede or negate the calls for one. In the political right, for example, the aftershocks of the Thad Cochran-Chris McDaniel Mississippi Republican Senate primary run-off deepened the divide between the Tea Party and the mainstream Republicans and have led many to speculate that a party schism is likely.
Many conservatives saw Cochran’s exploitation of a loophole in the Mississippi open primary law as a blatant betrayal and proof that the mainstream Republicans are willing to do whatever it takes to secure power — including embracing the Democrats. Cochran managed to win the run-off — in part — by actively campaigning to black Democratic voters in the last days of the campaign
“Today the conservative movement took a backseat to liberal Democrats in Mississippi,” McDaniels told his audience after most media outlets had projected Cochran to be the winner of the June 24 run-off. (McDaniels won the plurality of the votes in the original primary vote and was expected to cruise to victory in the run-off.)
Besides Dave Brat’s surprise defeat of Senate Majority Leader Eric Cantor, the Tea Party won none of its incumbancy challenges this electoral cycle. This has led to many in the Tea Party to believe that the mainstream Republicans are no longer interested in addressing their concerns, but simply currying for their votes.
“The same guys who have ridiculed and mocked not just the tea party but true conservatives are calling for unity,” Roy Nicholson, founding chairman of the Mississippi Tea Party, told the Clarion-Ledger. “The same people who so villainously stabbed us in the back now call on us to elect the same person who they stabbed us over? … In two to six years, (the tea party) will be at the head of some party or another … We want smaller government, less taxes and more freedom. Since our Republican leadership refuses to listen to that, they have brought on the destruction of the Mississippi GOP.”