(MintPress)—The United Nations Security Council is threatening sanctions on Sudan and South Sudan if their border battle doesn’t cease — a warning that didn’t stop Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir from declaring war Thursday on South Sudan, saying the new state must be destroyed.
Despite claims by the U.N., the likelihood of Security Council superpowers agreeing on sanctions is slim. The U.S. has been a staunch ally of South Sudan, while China and Russia are considered Sudan’s main weapons suppliers. China is also the largest consumer of Sudanese oil.
Conflict over oil has ensued since South Sudan officially gained independence from Sudan’s Khartoum government in July. The war has now taken center stage in Hegleg, the city that produces an estimated 55-barrels of oil per day near the countries’ loosely defined border. South Sudan began occupying the area this week in retaliation to claims that the north is not sharing oil profits, as defined in the nations’ 2005 peace agreement.
Oil at center of war
In the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the north and south, oil resources were to be shared between the two parties. While 80 percent of the nation’s oil is found in the south, the pipelines necessary to export the 350,000 barrels per day to outside markets are constructed in the north. In order for both parties to profit, they agreed to work together.
The agreement included a 50-50 oil profit split for the north and south, with a five-year timeline leading to the potential independence of South Sudan — a move that occurred in July, 2011.
Prior to South Sudan’s independence, issues in 2001 with transparency regarding oil revenue brought the Comprehensive Peace Agreement to a halt. Before South Sudan gained independence in July, the NGO Global Witness issued a statement warning that if the two parties did not negotiate concrete arrangements for oil revenue, with transparency, they could find themselves infused in war, once again.
“Suspicion that the north was cheating it out of due revenues was one of the primary reasons for the south’s temporary pull-out from the shared government in 2007. It is still impossible to tell if the current deal, a 50:50 split of southern oil revenues, has been implemented fairly,” Global Witness stated.
When Sudan officially gained its independence in July, negotiations were still taking place as to where official borders were and how transparency would be brought into the realm of oil agreements. Part of the independence agreement included a resolution that this process of negotiations would continue until finalized.
South Sudanese officials accused Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, of stealing $815 million worth of oil revenue, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This lack of clarity over oil control and concerns from the south that Sudan was taking advantage of southern oil profits prompted South Sudan to cut off oil supplies to the north in early 2012.
In April, South Sudan accused the north of trying to build a new oil pipeline that would tap into the south’s oil, according to a Reuters report. The day before the accusations, South Sudan had allegedly shot down a Sudanese airplane flying near an oil field in its territory.
A pending pipeline
With continued conflicts between the north and south, South Sudan has begun to look for alternative oil pipeline routes — a move that would be detrimental to Sudan’s economic base and those importing oil through the north.
China receives 7 percent of its oil supply from the Sudanese region, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That makes China the largest importer of Sudanese oil. Although the U.S. currently does not import crude oil from Sudan, speculators say having a hand in the region provides energy security — China ranks second in global oil consumption, next to the United States.
According to a U.S. Energy Information Administration March 2012 report, South Sudan has signed non-binding memoranda of understandings with Ethiopia and Kenya for the proposed construction of two pipelines. While the signed understanding does not bind the agreement under international law, it does indicate a working relationship.
The pipeline through Kenya, which would end in the Port of Lamu, is proposed at roughly 1,000 miles, according to the report, and would be completed in 18 months. However, considering the extent of work necessary for the pipeline in an area that lacks roads and security, it could take as long as two to three years.
Although the U.S. has not issued a statement on the proposed pipeline, it is allies with Kenya and Ethiopia, meaning the U.S. will likely benefit and have direct access to oil pipeline output in such areas. In 2011, the U.S. praised the two countries for fighting Al Shabaab militants in Somalia.
U.S. ties with South Sudan
The U.S. has backed South Sudan well before its July, 2011 independence, labeling the oil-rich south as the victim in a long-time civil war with the government in the north.
Since the Comprehensive Peace Agreement was signed in 2005, the U.S. has provided $270 million in aid to the south. While the United States does not import crude oil from Sudan, the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Office in 2011 allowed the exports of oil equipment to South Sudan
In an interview on the ground with McClatchy News Service, U.S. special envoy Princeton Lyman condemned the recent actions of South Sudan, calling for the withdrawal from Hegleg.
“Our good friend South Sudan has become extraordinarily impatient,” he said. “And we think they’ve taken great risks.”
That statement echoes sentiments expressed by President Barack Obama, who on April 2 called South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir to express concern over the conflict and urge the president to show restraint, according to a statement issued by the White House.
“President Obama underscored the importance of avoiding unilateral actions, and asked President Kiir to ensure that South Sudan’s military exercises maximum restraint and is not involved in or supporting fighting along the border, particularly in Southern Kardofan,” the statement said. “The president further emphasized the importance of South Sudan and Sudan reaching an agreement on oil.”