The rate of violent crime in the U.S. including rape, robbery and assault may have risen by more than one-third from 2010 to 2012, but a new Gallup poll found that Americans actually believe crime is decreasing throughout the nation.
The poll, conducted from October 3-6, found a four percent drop in the number of Americans who believed crime was on the rise, from 68 percent in 2012 to 64 percent in the latest poll. The findings come after it was announced earlier this month that the number of victims per thousand increased from 19 in 2010 to 26 in 2012.
“Now, with crime ticking up, Americans are slightly less likely to believe crime is getting worse than they were two years ago,” Gallup researchers wrote in the report. “This could change next year if the 2013 data reveal another increase in crime. But for now, this worrisome trend doesn’t seem to have caught Americans’ attention.”
Crimes against Black residents age 12 and older rose slightly in 2012, but there was no measurable change in the rate of violent crime against Whites and Hispanics.
The report found residents in urban areas continued to experience the highest rate of violent crime, as did males.
Americans’ belief about decreasing crime was also found to be true for local crime. The poll found that 41 percent of Americans believe crime has increased in their area, compared to 48 percent in 2011 and 51 percent in 2009.
According to the Gallup researchers, a majority of Americans have historically believed there has been more crime in the U.S., so the relative percentage of Americans who believe crime increased is not as statistically significant than whether or not it’s a majority-held viewpoint.
Release of the Gallup poll follows a Bureau of Justice Statistics report which found that for the second year in a row, violent crime in the U.S. had increased, ending a two-decade decline in crime.
According to the BJS report, 26 of every 1,000 people have experienced a violent crime, which is a 15 percent increase in the number of reported rapes, robberies and assaults.
Property crime such as burglary, theft and car theft also rose by 12 percent.
Though the increased crime rate may be alarming to some, researchers say that even though the current rate has elevated, it’s still at historically low level.
According to a report from the Detroit Free Press, crime rates have dropped steadily since 1993, when 80 of every 1,000 people reported they were a victim of a violent crime. Homicides are not included in these numbers.
James Alan Fox is a criminologist and professor at Northeastern University in Boston. He said the numbers indicate “We’ve plateaued … At this point, I don’t think we’re going to see any more decreases in crime.”
James Lynch, chairman of the University of Maryland’s criminology and criminal justice department, agreed and said the numbers are not indicative of a crime wave, but should be paid attention to.
Fox added that the real challenge “will be making sure crime rates don’t go back up.” He said one way to prevent that from happening is to keep criminals behind bars longer and develop better crime-fighting technology.
“Going back 20 years or more, policing was done blindly,” Fox said. “Now, due to technology, police can be much more proactive in dealing with crime problems before they get out of hand.”
He warned that further budget cuts to police departments may lead to more increases in crime, because policing appears to control the crime problem. “When you let up on the gas, bad things will happen. This plateauing and inching up a bit is just a warning to us that we have to keep on investing in crime prevention and crime control.”