AMMAN, Jordan– Rebels fighting to overthrow Syrian President Bashar Assad are making military gains on the ground against regime forces two years into the bloody civil war that has claimed more than 70,000 lives, but little headway seems to have been made on the political front among Assad’s opponents.
Assad recently warned that the fall of his regime would destabilize the region “for many years,” in an interview with Turkish media outlets last week.
The fractious nature of Syria’s political opposition has got the Obama administration and many U.S. allies worried about the future, should the Assad regime fall before opposition groups have agreed on a plan on how Syria will be run.
President Obama has dispatched Secretary of State John Kerry to the Middle East to see relations between key regional allies Israel and Turkey patched up, which the U.S. believes is imperative for revived peacemaking with the Palestinians, but also to coordinate efforts on Syria. In the coming weeks, Obama also will host in Washington leaders from Jordan, Turkey and Qatar helping to train and arm the rebels.
But observers and even some within Syria’s political opposition believe that efforts to make it a viable alternative to Assad are floundering.
“The failure of the Syrian opposition to unite and have an effective organization that is a true representative of Syrian people and their aspirations are the main causes of the sustainability of the Assad regime,” said Bassam Ishak, a member of the Syrian opposition.
Ishak, who has served on the General Secretariat of the Syrian National Council, and other figures have expressed frustration over the composition of opposition councils, the marginalization of some members, a lack of unity on key issues, continual power plays and attempts by certain groups to dominate.
“These groups are more representative of the international actors (countries like the U.S., Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, France and Britain) rather than the Syrian people,” said a prominent opposition leader who wished to remain anonymous, saying others would find his scathing remarks defamatory.
“Some have sought positions of leadership for prestige and personal gain at the expense of representation by Syrians who [are] carrying out the revolution,” he added.
The opposition within Syria
Other critics point to opposition leaders who have lived abroad for decades as being out of touch with what Syrians resisting the regime really want.
“The opposition within Syria must be fully represented in order to express the desires of citizens inside the country,” Ishak said. “Their aspirations must be heard and taken into account. This is not fully happening and a solution must be found.”
The opposition is an eclectic mix of moderate Muslims, Christians and other minorities in Syria, as well as salafists who wish to mitigate Iran’s (Shia) power and influence, Arab nationalists, democrats, leftists, Kurdish nationalists and Syrian military and police defectors.
While some believe the diverse nature of the opposition poses a challenge for its long term efficacy, others like Ishak believe all can pull together in a body that “gives equal share of power to everyone.”
“There is a need for greater unity in a framework that is truly representative of the Syrian people inside the country. Partnership needs to be practiced,” he said.
One attempt after another to organize the opposition has flopped. The Syrian National Coalition was formed last November at the insistence of the U.S. and Qatar to make the opposition more inclusive and broad-based than its predecessor, the Syrian National Council. It was also to serve as the opposition’s official liaison with other countries, coordinate anti-Assad activities and centralize the operations of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
But as the “Middle East Economic Digest” points out, the National Coalition “continues to be dogged by the perception that it is a tool in the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood (with Qatari support).” The Syrian National Council came under attack for this same reason. Others point to the Coalition’s Islamic, pro-Qatari General Secretary Mustafa Sabbagh as wielding immense power.
In the magazine’s April 5 edition, it said that the coalition’s charismatic leader, Moaz al-Khatib, who recently resigned and remains in office until a replacement is found, could not “conceal his exasperation with having to cope with internal squabbles, rivalries between Arab states and international ambivalence over the continuing war and humanitarian catastrophe in Syria.”
The Coalition, like its predecessor, has also failed to establish itself as the top authority directing rebels on the ground in Syria, where hundreds of independent brigades are battling Assad’s troops, including jihadist groups.
“Although the FSA has streamlined its operations through the Supreme Military Council, the exploits of jihadist and Salafist groups are grabbing the headlines in the military campaign – notably Jabhat al-Nusra, which is designated by the U.S. as a terrorist organization,” the magazine said, adding that recent rebel victories have been attributed to such militant organizations.
Tension inside and outside of Syria
The insurgency holds large stretches of territory in the north and has been gaining ground in the south in past weeks, seizing military bases and towns in the strategically important region between Damascus and the border with Jordan, about 100 miles from the capital.
In a cat-and-mouse game, however, government forces launched a blistering counteroffensive of widespread airstrikes Sunday that reclaimed the northern village, Aziza, on an important route to the Aleppo military airport.
Meanwhile, serious tensions are also mounting among activists both inside and outside Syria, between those who advocate a ‘civil state’ as opposed to an ‘Islamic state’ for Syria’s future destiny.
Now, some Gulf Arab states who have been supplying weapons to rebels have laid down a new condition for getting weapons: Only armed groups pledging allegiance to the FSA and the Coalition will be eligible for weapons supplied from Gulf Arab governments.
Observers say it appears to be an effort underway to integrate the FSA command with the fighters on the ground along with the Coalition’s civilian leaders.
Al-Khatib, the Coalition’s U.S.-educated Prime Minister Ghassan Hitto, and FSA commander Gen. Salim Idriss have been invited to London this week for meetings with British and French officials to discuss the matter.
The rebels have long complained that they need more powerful weapons, including anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to battle regime tanks, attack helicopters and artillery.
A number in the opposition have opposed Hitto’s election as prime minister of an interim government for rebel-held areas. Hitto has been tasked with bringing disparate rebel military groups under the control of a credible civilian leadership, but the IT specialist has lived abroad in the U.S. for the past 30 years and was put forward by the Qatari government as their choice candidate.
Karim Bitar, an analyst at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations in Paris, said al-Khatib felt Qatar was interfering in domestic Syrian affairs in a ‘heavy-handed’ way with Hitto’s election. Only 34 out of 49 members elected him, while some high profile members resigned and several FSA leaders said he does not represent them.
Bitar, writing in the “Syria Deeply” blog, said Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other countries appear to want to dictate leadership roles within the opposition.
“We now have internecine quarrels within the camp that is supposed to support rebels,” he said. “All this confusion is providing fodder for Syrian regime propaganda. Today, Bashar Assad is probably laughing and enjoying the show.”
Assad told Turkish media that the end of his rule or the disintegration of Syria would fuel regional instability for years. Joshua Landis, director of the University of Oklahoma’s Middle Eastern Studies Center, believes Assad has for the first time admitted that his regime could fall.
“Everybody knows that if the disturbances in Syria reach the point of the country’s breakup, or terrorist forces control Syria, or if the two cases happen, then this will immediately spill over into neighboring countries first, and later there will be a domino effect that will reach countries across the Middle East,” Assad said.
Landis sees the statement as trying to persuade the international community that what is happening in Syria is part of a “larger conspiracy” and warns against “rising Islamism” in the country.
But opposition leader Bassam Ishak discounted Assad’s assertion. “He is trying to exaggerate the value of his regime,” he said.
“This is not a new strategy. He has said this from the very beginning of the conflict in Syria,” Ishak retorted. “But we have not seen a ‘domino effect’ or the kind of instability he is talking about in any neighboring country over the last two years.”
However, Jordan stepped up security along its border with Syria last Thursday as Syrian state media warned that the kingdom was “playing with fire” by allowing the U.S and other countries to train and arm Syrian rebels on its territory.
Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon and Israel fear that Syria could turn into a failed state where chemical weapons and other arms stocks could fall into militant hands. Israel has also expressed concern that jihadists will use the Golan Heights as a staging ground for attacks after thousands of Syrian soldiers withdrew from the strategic area in recent weeks.