A slew of recent media reports have all announced, with some trepidation, a new trend in American social and economic life that is likely to have a profound effect in the coming decades – the emergence of the post-automobile society. This pronouncement is based on confirmation of a recent trend that Americans of all types are driving far less than they used to.
For evidence of this, look no farther than a new report issued by the US Public Interest Research Group, which has compiled a treasure-trove of information on America’s past and present driving habits. The data presented therein paints a rather stark picture of the health of America’s car culture. As of April of 2013, for instance, the number of miles driven per person has dropped by nine percent below its 2005 peak, reaching levels of miles driven not seen since the mid-1990s. Amongst the young, this drop off is staggering – young Americans drove 23 percent less in 2009 than they did in 2001.
Indeed, possibly the most startling statistic is the decline amongst young people of the number of those who possess or plan to obtain a driver’s license. Between 1983 and 2010, for example, the number of people possessing a driver’s license aged 20 to 24 dropped from 92 percent to 81 percent – an 11 percent drop. For those even younger, the number possessing a driver’s licenses has literally dropped off a cliff.
In 1983, for instance, 87 percent of nineteen-year-olds possessed a license while only 70 percent do today. For eighteen-year-olds, the number possessing driver’s licenses has declined from 80 percent to 61 percent while the number of seventeen-year-olds possessing a license has fallen from 69 percent in 1983 to 46 percent in 2010. Truly remarkable; what was once a rite of passage for sixteen-year-olds everywhere – passing Driver’s Ed and obtaining a driver’s license – has gone the way of leisure suits and bell-bottom jeans. Whereas nearly half, 46 percent, of sixteen-year-olds were in possession of a license in 1983, today that number stands at just under one-third, 28 percent.
Even thirty-something young adults well beyond college age are not immune to this growing disenchantment with the car. They too have also shown a marked decrease in their willingness to drive and purchase automobiles. For those aged 30 to 34, for instance, license possession has dropped seven percent between 1983 and 2010. Young people and young adults, moreover, are obviously in no need of cars when they have no license with which to drive them, a fact now reflected in auto sales data.
30 years old: too young and too poor to buy a car
Indeed, a statistic that should fill auto companies full of dread is the fact that the age group most likely to purchase a new car has shifted dramatically upward in recent years. No longer are people in the coveted 30-to-40 year-old age bracket most likely to buy a car in the coming year. That position is now firmly held by those older by at least a decade, 40 to 50 years-of-age, or more. The demographics of car ownership and use, like the country at large, would seem to be graying quickly.
The reasons for this rapid turnaround in America’s love affair with the car are legion. The recession of 2008 crippled millions of American families financially, while the equally-devastating after effects, from decreasing pay packages to a stagnant job market, have hit young people especially hard. Couple this with the increased cost of car ownership for everything from the sticker price to insurance and gas, and Americans, most especially young Americans, for purely economic reasons, are finding it increasingly difficult to adopt the automobile as wholeheartedly as previous generations.
Other factors beyond cost, however, are also clearly at play in making driving and cars far less attractive than in previous decades. Technology, especially the ubiquitous adoption of the internet and smartphones, has made one the main purpose of cars – getting out of the house and connecting with one’s peers – superfluous. Whereas teens of the Grease generation may have used cars to cruise for dates far from the watchful eyes of adults, the same can be done far less expensively, and much more privately, through twitter, Facebook, texting, and instant messaging.
Likewise, driving itself has become much more of a chore on America’s ever-more-clogged highways and byways. Average commute times now stand at nearly thirty minutes each way, meaning Americans spend an hour a day merely going to and from work, mostly by car. No one enjoys long drives day-after-day in dense streams of traffic that never seem to get better, and for those commuting from the outer suburbs, commute times are truly horrible. This in turn has made telecommuting an ever more popular work option for those to whom it is available.
Finally, even though America’s public transportation system remains dramatically underfunded, underdeveloped, and all-in-all a pale shadow compared to other industrialized nations, technology and local public-private efforts are creating new ways to avoid the deadening grip of the daily commute. Ride-share programs, short-route car rentals, bike lanes, real-time bus-route information, and other innovative initiatives are making it easier to avoid owning a car while new urbanism, a social movement comprised of urban planners, transport experts, and environmentalists dedicated to creating mixed-use communities that are both walkable and sustainable, has grown much more influential.
Finally, the allure of the suburbs itself – the developmental form created and sustained by the automobile – may now also be losing its luster. Suburbia is no longer synonymous with either prosperity or the American Dream, and the socially isolated, expensive, car-dependent suburban lifestyle is no longer appealing to young people who want jobs, shops, and entertainment nearby, if not within walking distance.
Will we abandon the car altogether?
Assuming this trend in the abandonment of the automobile continues into the future, admittedly something that is still a big if at present, all this points to tremendous shifts in American culture, economics, and politics in the coming years. In short American cities, long in decline, are set to be reinvigorated in ways not seen since the heyday of American urbanization in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century. This is great news on any number of fronts.
First, a revitalization of America’s cities caused by a flight from cars and the suburbs will pump new, desperately-needed resources into urban communities long-since written off by the rest of America. With more people comes more money. Money, in turns leads to more jobs, productivity, and economic growth which, in turn, draw in more people, money, productivity, and growth in a positive feed-back loop. So long as America’s cities can avoid choking on their own success, there is no reason to suppose this will stop.
Second, whereas suburbanization led off an unsustainable consumption boom via the construction of tract housing and all the trappings required for a middle-class suburban lifestyle, re-urbanization promises to set off a productivity boom that will make the U.S. economy more efficient and competitive. It will do this by bringing workers closer to where jobs are – thus reducing transport costs – while the infrastructure upgrades that will eventually be demanded by these new residents will make America’s cities a less costly place to do business. Increased population density also makes it easier for companies to find workers or for individuals to establish small businesses aimed at niche markets. Vibrant cities also create innovate cultures that draw in members of America’s creative class like flies to honey.
Third, more densely-packed American cities will provide tremendous environmental benefits. Less carbon will need to be burned transporting people and goods across the far-flung suburbs while large-scale innovations in building design that reduce waste and energy use are far more likely to be adopted in cities than out in the rural hinterlands. Smart buildings, smart grids, and renewable energy hold the potential to make cities much cleaner and far more environmentally friendly than ever before.
Fourth, the political ramifications of an urban renaissance caused by mass abandonment of the car cannot be overstated. Low-density suburbs are notoriously conservative, being as they are the bastions of the wealthy and those who choose to flee form the non-white urban masses. Cities, being the great melting pots of the nation, are naturally more liberal insofar as the need to provide services to a huge, diverse population requires both more government involvement in the economy and the development of a culture of cosmopolitan tolerance for those who are different.
So, the American future is one where cars are much less popular than they are now for the simple reason that more and more Americans are seeing through the advertising flimflam that auto companies try to seduce us with. Far from being a symbol of freedom, the car today is a costly albatross that fewer can afford while driving has become one hassle after another – a chore to be endured rather than a pleasure to be sought. America in the past may not have been able to drive 55, but today it seems fewer people see the point of doing so – and that is a wonderful thing.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Mint Press News editorial policy.