AMMAN, Jordan — A fierce critic of the Obama administration’s policy on Syria, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) on Monday became the highest-ranking U.S. official to enter the war-ravaged country via Turkey in the company of the Free Syrian Army’s top commander, Gen. Salem Idris.
Rebel military and civilian leaders came from all over Syria, including Homs, Qusair, Idlib, Damascus and Aleppo to ask McCain, a member of both the influential Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees for weapons, a no-fly zone and strikes against the Lebanese group Hezbollah fighting alongside regime troops.
McCain’s surprise visit, which the U.S. State Department said it was not aware of, took place as Secretary of State John Kerry held talks with his Russian counterpart in Paris to secure the participation of Syria’s government and the fractured opposition in an international peace conference next month in Geneva. The meeting aims to resolve the two-year civil war that has claimed 80,000 lives and exhibits mounting evidence that chemical weapons are being used.
“We need American help to have change on the ground; we are now in a very critical situation,” Idris said of new military offensives by Syrian regime troops aimed at regaining ground once taken by the rebels. The battle for the strategic town of Qusair, on a rebel supply line near the Lebanese border, has continued to rage for more than a week, with Hezbollah forces advancing but taking heavy casualties.
The fighters reportedly told McCain that they need better weapons and more ammunition to counter the regime’s airpower, according to The Daily Beast. They alleged that additional fighters, both those of Hezbollah and Shiites from Iraq, are flooding in, while Russian and Iranian military advisers are aiding Damascus.
McCain: Diplomacy needs “teeth”
McCain said “teeth” needed to be given to U.S. diplomatic efforts to see Syrian President Bashar Assad unseated. Speaking at the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Jordan on Saturday, the former U.S. presidential candidate urged for a no-fly zone to be set up in Syria, allowing vetted, moderate rebels to organize, train and receive needed weapons.
“I have a large degree of cynicism about the success of [diplomacy] unless Assad is convinced that the battlefield situation will not be in his favor,” McCain said. “If he thinks he will survive, then he will not seriously negotiate. There must be teeth in Geneva II that if he fails to agree to an orderly transition, then the consequences will be severe.”
The Republican senator from Arizona and Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, discussed the worsening civil war with Jordan’s King Abdullah II on the meeting’s sidelines. Jordan and Syria’s other neighbors are growing increasingly concerned about the conflict’s spillover. Lebanon’s army is probing an attack on a checkpoint that killed three soldiers.
Meanwhile on Sunday, two rockets hit Hezbollah’s heartland in south Beirut, the first such attack since the Syria conflict began. Hours earlier, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said it was in the group’s interest to defend the Assad regime. “I always promised you a victory, and now I pledge to you a new one [in Syria],” he said in televised remarks, publicly acknowledging Hezbollah’s direct involvement in a battlefront far from its usual skirmishes with Israel.
Last week, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted to provide weapons to Syrian rebels, as well as military training to vetted rebel groups and sanctions against anyone who sells oil or transfers arms to the Assad regime.
The senators said that fresh diplomatic efforts seeking to resolve the crisis need to be bolstered with military might, but ruled out sending U.S. troops on the ground in Syria.
“No one wants American boots on the ground. The Israelis have proved you can take out targets anywhere in Syria with relative impunity,” McCain said, adding that government runways could be “cratered and the air force taken out.” He called for Patriot missiles then to be stationed in safe zones.
When asked if such activity could elicit a wider response from Assad’s Shiite patron, Iran, McCain replied: “If we can’t counter Iranian activity, then that obviously underestimates the capabilities of the U.S. and our allies.”
The Obama administration has so far provided non-lethal equipment and humanitarian supplies to the rebels, but has stopped short of further intervention, despite warnings that evidence of chemical weapons use would be a “red line.” The administration fears U.S.-supplied weapons could end up in the hands of militant rebels, including those aligned with al-Qaida.
Talk of peace, while preparing for war
Salman Shaikh, who directs the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar, told WEF participants that “there is a developing consensus now despite all the efforts regarding Geneva … that as we are talking peace, people are actually preparing for more war.”
“It’s that particular track that is probably going to strengthen,” he said. “I’m seeing a developing consensus from Sen. McCain, but more importantly from Sen. Menendez … that you have to change the military balance in order to arrive at a political solution.”
Even as McCain secretly met Syrian rebels and Kerry and his Russian counterpart held talks, a divided European Union wrangled for 11 hours in Brussels before finally agreeing to lift the arms embargo on the Syrian opposition beginning June 1. Sanctions against Assad’s regime will be maintained. However, there was no immediate decision to send arms to Syrian rebels. Individual states will have to decide their own rules for dispatching weapons.
It is believed that many are waiting to see how diplomacy at the Geneva conference will pan out. An EU decision on whether Britain, France and others can begin carefully-controlled weapons supplies to rebels is expected in August at the earliest.
A new kind of dialogue?
Brooking’s Shaikh said he does not believe that dialogue between the regime and the opposition will succeed. Rather, Syrians “from all backgrounds and major constituencies, tribal leaders, Shias, Sunnis and others need to come together to find a space for a very serious discussion on where their interests lie, the future of their country and how they can rebuild it,” he said.
“It’s a negotiation which has to take place between them to arrive at a new equation for sharing power,” Shaikh said.
He said that despite efforts by the regime to tear apart Syria’s diverse social fabric, “Syrians are Syrians first. […] This has to be a serious process of dialogue. I believe the international community has not paid enough attention to this. This will require a lot more international and regional support than it has received.”
“Even the official opposition has not provided the venue that kind of dialogue requires,” Shaikh said. “Until we get there, I’m afraid that we are going to continue to see a political solution as elusive.”
Shaikh and other analysts believe the Syrian opposition abroad lacks legitimacy inside the country, with backing mainly derived from the international community. The Syrian opposition is in a “perpetual state of reorganization themselves,” he said.
The main Syrian National Coalition is also divided over whether to participate in the Geneva talks.
“They don’t get along with everybody fighting on the ground. They have serious gaps in terms of their membership. They lack impact,” said Rami Khoury, who directs the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.
“If they were unified, they would be more effective. They would be able to attract more support. That’s why people on the ground inside Syria are the ones who are setting the tone really for what’s going to happen, whether it is military or political,” he added.