MintPress News teamed up with Greg Stoker, a former U.S. Army Special Operations member turned anti-imperialist, to provide insightful analysis of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) assault on Rafah, shedding light on why it is likely doomed to fail.
Stoker’s examination begins with a stark revelation regarding the IDF’s logistical hurdles. “The Israeli Army is grappling with a severe munition shortage,” Stoker asserts, “not just limited to aerial bombs, but also extending to artillery.” This casts doubt on the IDF’s capacity to sustain a prolonged assault while preserving stockpiles necessary for deterrence against Hezbollah and other regional threats. He notes, “They may have enough to detonate Rafah into Oblivion, but they will not be able to level Rafah the way they want to and still maintain stockpiles for deterrence.”
Moreover, Stoker highlights the IDF’s historical ineffectiveness in detecting tunnel systems in Gaza despite occupying the Philadelphia Corridor along the Rafah Crossing. “They have thus far proven considerably ineffective,” he remarks, emphasizing the operation’s coercive nature aimed at pressuring Hamas into acquiescence.
Characterizing the entire operation as a “performative public relations stunt,” Stoker questions its strategic efficacy. “The narrative that assaulting Rafah is requisite to defeat Hamas has been proven ludicrous,” he asserts, citing Hamas’ continued resilience in the face of Israeli aggression. Stoker further challenges the operation’s legitimacy, citing Israeli intelligence veterans’ projections of a multi-year timeline for Hamas’ defeat.
Stoker warns of the operation’s unsustainability in light of mounting casualties and dwindling resources. “Despite potential declarations of victory,” he emphasizes, “the IDF lacks achievable goals, an exit strategy, and faces diminishing political capital.” Recent statements from White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby underscore the operation’s waning legitimacy.
The IDF’s occupation of the Philadelphia Corridor along the Rafah Crossing ostensibly aims to locate and collapse smuggling tunnels from Egypt. However, Stoker highlights the IDF’s historical ineffectiveness in detecting tunnel systems in Gaza. This occupation serves as a coercive tactic to pressure Hamas into accepting unfavorable terms, “It is just another pressure point to force Hamas into accepting a subpar deal by collectively punishing civilians,” Stoker concludes, warning of the operation’s unsustainability, citing a lack of achievable goals, exit strategy, and diminishing resources.
For further updates and analysis on this unfolding situation, watch Stoker’s full analysis and follow MintPress News.
Greg Stoker is an activist, anti-imperialist, US Special Forces veteran and host of the @colonialoutcasts podcast.