Challenge & Promise In Germany’s Energiewende

In 1997, the EU issued a Directive on Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources, with the modest goal of having 12% of electricity produced by renewable sources by 2010. Germany met that goal in 2007 and, flush with success, developed more challenging targets of its own:  40-45% electricity from renewables by 2025, 18% renewable energy by 2020, and a 20% reduction in total energy consumption by 2020. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has set even greater overall goals—60% renewable power by 2035, and closure of all nuclear power plants by 2022 (the German people were particularly stunned by the Fukushima tragedy).

What progress has Germany made toward these goals? How does the future look? Various observers of Germany’s Energiewende (or ‘energy transition’) differ in their assessments, covering a range from very skeptical to downright glowing.

Let’s take a look.

 

The tut-tutters
Some critics of Germany’s efforts take a dim view of the whole thing. Just a few examples from the past year give the gist of their objections.

Der Spiegel, 25 Oct 2013: “Germany pretends to be a pioneer in the green revolution. But its massively expensive Energiewende has done nothing to make the environment cleaner or encourage genuine efficiency.”

Indeed, coal consumption jumped 8% between January — June 2013 since inability to store solar and wind energy leads to use of coal-fired power plants. A trio of photo galleries were included in support of the article’s drift.

Just a few months later, Der Spiegel focused on wind power which was supposed to yield “at least 6 percent” annual interest to German investors, else they could have their principle back. Sadly, things hadn’t worked out so well with 20% of wind parks in operation for 10 years or so having not “once paid their investors a dividend exceeding 2 percent of their investments.”

By late August 2014 the Wall Street Journal chimed in, worrying that “the enormous cost to replace a currently working system will undermine the country’s industrial base and weigh on the entire European economy.”

Indeed, 75% of small- and medium-size German businesses surveyed reported “rising energy costs are a major risk.” Chemical giant BASF planned cutting its German investment from 1/3 to 1/4 of its global total, and other major companies were contemplating similar action. The WSJ also pointed to the large surcharge German consumers pay, tripling their energy bill.

 

Concerned critics
Others, supportive of alternative energy development, are nonetheless concerned that somehow things have gone awry. A Scientific American article, for example, asks “Is Germany’s Green Zeal Turning Brown?” noting that Germany’s CO2 emissions have recently risen and that use of lignite, a nasty brown coal, “has risen every year since 2010.”

The article quotes Greenpeace, saying “Germany is making itself a laughing stock because it hasn’t set limits on brown coal.”

The author also notes the manufacture of large, fast vehicles in Germany by an industry with 760,000 employees, that exports 4+ million vehicles annually, “and donates hundreds of thousands of euros to the main political parties.”

Even China recognizes the need for strict environmental standards, including smaller, more fuel-efficient cars.

She also points to the manufacture of large, fast vehicles in Germany by an industry with 760,000 employees, that exports 4+ million vehicles annually, “and donates hundreds of thousands of euros to the main political parties.”

Even China recognizes the need for strict environmental standards, including smaller, more fuel-efficient cars.

Another critic has a graph showing electricity produced by source in Germany in 2003 and in 2013. Coal-produced electricity decreased slightly, from 50.1% to 45.6%, while electricity from natural gas was virtually unchanged. Power from nuclear plants, however, had dramatically decreased—from 27.1% to 15.4%—and electricity from renewables had soared—from 7.5% to 23.4%. Although promising trends, the critic cautioned, those shifts did come at quite a price—$134 billion additional charges to “the power bills of households, shop owners and small factories.”

 

Constructive critics

Other observers offer a more in-depth look into certain key issues:

• Use of coal. Coal “imports are increasing in order to meet the country’s baseload power demands” while avoiding “pricier natural gas.” And while Germany is constructing new coal- and lignite-fired power plants, the construction was planned between 2005-08, and “represents the end of a business cycle rather than being part of a longer term trend.” Moreover, the new plants will incorporate new technologies that “reduce nitrogen emissions … remove sulphur dioxide emissions; and … mitigate particulate matter emissions.”
• Natural gas imports. France to the rescue! Germany imports natural gas—36% of it from Russia, a practice the EU is discouraging. “France is set to link a new liquefied natural gas . . . terminal in the port of Dunkirk with Germany by 2016, offering Europe’s biggest energy market an alternative to Russian gas.
• Those fast cars? Germans might “say ’nein’ to electric cars” themselves, but Germany has set the goal of building 400,000 electric cars/year, second only to Japan at 450,000. Audi recently announced plans to develop electric cars, and BMW has launched a “fast charger for electric cars”—80% capacity in 30 minutes.
• Renewables’ cost burden. Although “citizens, cooperatives, and communities own more than half of German renewable capacity” (compared to 2% in the US), “retail electricity rates are high and rising, putting pressure on lower income individuals in particular.” There is also the overriding issue of individuals, families and small businesses subsidizing not just the renewables, but industry’s use of those renewables as well. Almost two-thirds of Germany’s “commercial enterprises are planning to produce at least part of their own power using photovoltaics” which should provide relief to the households and small businesses currently subsidizing renewable power. Overall, though, Germany faces the same quandary as many other nations—how to reduce public subsidies of private enterprises.

 

Energiewende’s near future

Between 2000 and 2014, Germany’s solar power capacity “increased from 114 megawatts to 38,000 megawatts and wind power capacity from 6,000 to 35,000 megawatts.”

This has been achieved in part by developing alternative energy models appropriate for various regions of the country. In Brandenburg (which surrounds Berlin), for example, 78% of all electricity is from wind turbines, photovoltaic panels and biomass, and very little from hydropower and off-shore wind parks. Northern Germany, in contrast, is unable to produce much photovoltaic power in the long winter, but does generate considerable wind power and energy from wood and biomass.

Germany’s success in promoting renewables is evidenced by its exporting energy to “the Netherlands, followed by Austria, Switzerland and Poland.” Expectations are that these successes will continue.

One major challenge may be met in the near future: energy storage. Battery storage—affordable battery storage—once realized, “is destined to further reduce demand from conventional generators.” German companies in the forefront of energy storage are: RWE, which has “recently installed a CAES pilot plant, storing wind energy”, providing substitute capacity that can “replace up to 50 wind turbines . . . for up to four hours”; E.ON, which is concentrating on solar PV battery storage systems for homes; and Saft, which has installed a lithium-ion storage system on Pellworm Island off Germany’s North Sea coast. Storage capacity will have a positive impact on rates.

 

And the winnah is: Feldheim

For sheer success, look no farther than this rural Brandenburg community, 40 miles from Berlin and formerly in Eastern Germany. It’s 100% grid-independent in terms of electricity and heat (though villagers still drive around in gasoline-powered vehicles). It takes nothing from the German grid but does send electricity to it. The local population used to pay 500,000 euros/year for imported energy. “Now, they pay out nothing.” (There are green meanies, however: one large utility reportedly won’t allow Feldheim to feed into its grid and three others have “blocked every other attempt to create a completely independent village grid like this one.”)

But, go see for yourself: here and here (showing the noisiest wind turbines to be found in Feldheim). And there’s more here.

It’s not that the future looks so bright that every German citizen will be wearing shades, but the prospects of success for Energiewende in Germany are certainly encouraging, and with major implications for the US and other countries.

 

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