(MintPress) — Recent sectarian violence across Northern Ireland has raised fears that riots in Belfast could soon escalate into a broader conflict. Sixty police officers were injured when rival Protestant and Catholic groups threw stones and petrol bombs. Authorities claim the violence ignited when a Catholic parade marched through the streets of Belfast.
Although the long running conflict falls roughly along religious-sectarian lines, the root of belligerents’ qualms are largely nationalistic, rather than religious in much the same way salient cleavages have formed in the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict. While there is legitimate deep seated animosity between Catholic and Protestant populations, the groups remain split on whether semi-autonomous Northern Ireland should continue to be part of the United Kingdom or associate with the sovereign, independent Irish nation.
Catholic-Protestant tensions
Northern Ireland’s top ministers met recently in an emergency meeting to stop rioting across Belfast. Tensions sometimes escalate between the two factions, especially during what locals call “marching season,” a time when Catholic nationalists and Protestant unionists march through the streets in support of their divergent political causes.
Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness spoke to the press after the emergency talks, saying, “People need to abide by the rule of law. If people are not prepared to abide by those determinations then what they are effectively doing is sowing the seeds of further conflict within our society and I think they are making a big mistake.”
Prominent Irish author Emonne Mallie spoke about the escalating violence in a recent Al Jazeera interview, saying, “When you have the volume of petrol bombs, missiles etc. being hurled two nights in a row and a number of police officers being injured, one has to treat it more seriously than a mere tit for tat.”
Mallie continued, saying, “This place has been reasonably settled for some time, But we have a body here known as the parades commission which arbitrates and decides where people can march and where they cannot march. Protestants feel that they are getting a raw deal right now.”
So far at least 60 police officers have been injured, seven of whom have been hospitalized as a result of the rioting. The parades commission reportedly denied marching permits for a number of Loyalist Protestant groups, a decision that has increased tensions.
Although no further injuries have been reported, Mallie believes that Irish should be hesitant to dismiss the violence as simply “a brief flare-up,” saying, “Thank God no guns have appeared on the street. But in situations like that, historically guns have ultimately appeared and therein lays the real danger.”
“The troubles” renewed?
The Northern Irish conflict began in the late 1960s when demonstrations on university campuses raised the spectre of a strong nationalist push from young Irish Catholics.
The demonstrations quickly escalated into violence when in August 1969 mass riots broke out across Northern Ireland. British troops were deployed to quell the violence after eight were killed during the attacks.
The height of the conflict was marked by extreme violence provoked in large part by the Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA), a militant Marxist group that launched attacks against the 3,000 British troops stationed in the territory. The group has been classified as a terrorist organization by the United Kingdom, as the group used improvised explosive devices and car bombs against targets in Ireland, Northern Ireland and the U.K.
Although there is no clear record of the connection between IRA members and the Irish Catholic diaspora, historians familiar with the conflict believe that a small number of America’s 40 million Irish American community contributed money and smuggled weapons on behalf of the group.
A much more robust connection was established with the late Libyan leader, Moammar Gadhafi, in the 1970s. Gadhafi openly supported the IRA and Irish separatism, sending weapons to support the cause. The IRA also maintained correspondence and a symbolic alliance with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), a group that was engaged in a similar armed struggle with Israel at the time.
A number of Protestant paramilitary organizations formed to oppose the nationalists and to aid the British army in their attempt to quash the rebellion.
Those who were not directly involved in the armed struggle were split mostly along national lines. The majority Protestant population became Loyalists, believing that Northern Ireland should remain a part of the United Kingdom, while the minority Catholic community mostly supported separation from the U.K. and unification with independent Ireland.
Northern Ireland was partitioned from the South in 1921. However, the two continue to cooperate on most political and economic matters.
Three decades of serious conflict left more than 3,000 dead, one-third of them civilians. The conflict was brought to an end in 1998 after the warring parties signed the Belfast “Good Friday” peace treaty. Cities across Northern Ireland have experienced sporadic flare-ups of violence in the years after the treaty, but there has been little to suggest a return to full fledged warfare between nationalists and unionists.
Even though prominent Irish commentators, including Emonne Mallie, caution authorities to be prepared for increased violence, the prospect remains minimal at best. The most radicalized armed groups have either been disbanded or continue to operate with minimal popular support from mainstream Irish society.
The enduring peace treaty has convinced most Irish regardless of religious background that it is better to live in peace as a part of the United Kingdom than to be engaged in an endless war of independence.
The US: Mediator or quiet ally of republicanism?
The peace treaty was facilitated by the Clinton administration. However, the large Irish Catholic community in the U.S. played an important role in securing popular support for the terms of the agreement.
The Irish National Caucus (INC), formed in 1974, at the height of the conflict in Northern Ireland, played a role in securing the terms of the peace treaty. Father Sean McManus formed the organization with an avowedly peaceful orientation, pushing U.S. policymakers to promote both Catholic and Protestant interests in Northern Ireland.
According to the INC website, “We believe the U.S. has a vital role to play by applying a single — not a double-standard in its foreign policies toward human rights in Ireland. In particular, we believe the U.S. must not subsidize anti-Catholic discrimination in Northern Ireland.”
This point is confirmed by a cache of diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks last year revealing that the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations have worked in a decidedly “even-handed” manner, in an effort to bring about a just, peaceful solution to the conflict in Northern Ireland.
Former president Bill Clinton decided to launch the U.S. Special envoy for Northern Ireland in 1995 to provide support for the peace process.
Irish separatism: A fleeting prospect
Support for the Irish Republican Army and other armed groups has decreased significantly in recent years, as the Irish public seems dissatisfied with the violence used to achieve independence. Additionally, recent opinion polls indicate the population of Northern Ireland largely opposes unification with the South.
A June opinion poll conducted by the Belfast Telegraph news agency posed the question, “If a referendum on Irish unity were held, would you vote yes for unity, yes for unity in 20 years, or no to keep Northern Ireland as it is?”
Fifty-five percent of respondents answered, “no,” while 25 percent said they would support unification in 20 years. Just 7 percent of respondents answered “yes” to immediate unification, while 13 percent held no opinion.
Overall, the peace process has been quite successful in maintaining a tenuous peace between Catholic Loyalists and Protestant Nationalists. Additionally, violent groups, like the IRA and Loyalist paramilitaries, are no longer palatable as an increasing number believe that Northern Ireland will remain a permanent piece of the United Kingdom.