(NEW YORK) MintPress – After more than a decade, America’s war in Afghanistan may be drawing to a close, with troops scheduled to leave by 2014, but violence is on the rise and the Afghan security force remains unprepared to fill the gap.
On Sunday, the U.S. military and civilian death toll in the war reached 2,000. One day later, a suicide bomber drove a motorcycle packed with explosives into a patrol of Afghan and international forces in eastern Afghanistan, killing at least 14 people, including three NATO service members and their translator.
Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said in text messages to media that the insurgent group was behind the attack.
It came as relations between international forces and their Afghan partners are at a critical juncture because of a surge in so-called “green-on-blue” insider attacks, which military experts say are also part of the Taliban strategy.
Last month, the U.S. military issued new orders that require units to get approval from their superiors before conducting joint operations with Afghans. Two weeks later, U.S. officials said most missions were being conducted with Afghans again, but the system of approvals is still in place.
The close contact — coalition forces working side by side with Afghan troops as advisers, mentors and trainers — is a key part of the U.S. strategy for putting the Afghans in the lead as the U.S. and other nations prepare to pull out their last combat troops by the end of 2014.
But the rising death toll for international troops has increased calls in the U.S. and other allies to get out as soon as possible.
NATO frustration
Indeed, the withdrawal of U.S.-led NATO combat troops from Afghanistan may be accelerated, said the chief of the Atlantic alliance on Tuesday, acknowledging that the killing of at least 52 allied troops this year by Afghan security force insider attacks have hurt Western morale.
“From now until the end of 2014 you may see adaptation of our presence. Our troops can redeploy, take on other tasks, or even withdraw, or we can reduce the number of foreign troops,” NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told the the Guardian newspaper.
“If the security situation allows, I would not exclude the possibility that in certain areas you could accelerate the withdrawal process,” he said.
Rasmussen said the decision on withdrawing troops and speeding up the transfer of primary security responsibilities to Afghan forces would be made after U.S. Marine Corps General John R. Allen, the top commander in Afghanistan, delivered his military recommendations in the next two months.
“Political decisions will be taken, based on his recommendations, as to how we will adapt to the transfer of lead responsibility to the Afghans,” he said. “The pace will very much depend on the security situation on the ground.”
The U.S. military last month fully withdrew the last of the 33,000 “surge” troops sent to Afghanistan in 2009 to help the Afghan government contain the insurgency and develop a stronger domestic security force as well as improve self-governance.
The surge brought the total American presence there to almost 100,000. NATO contributions brought the total to approximately 130,000 troops.
When Obama announced the surge, he also detailed an exit strategy — the U.S. would begin drawing down troops in 2011 and leave Afghanistan entirely by 2014.
The price has been steep: The United States was in Afghanistan for almost 9 years before the American death toll reached 1,000 — it took only 27 more months for the death toll to reach 2,000.
Containing the chaos
The rising death toll for international troops has also raised concerns about whether they will achieve their goal of training the Afghans to fully secure their country.
Afghanistan is still rife with corruption and lacks a capable domestic security force able to quell the insurgency on their own.
The Afghan National Army currently has 200,000 soldiers, with a NATO-set goal of 352,000 Afghan soldiers and police by the time foreign troops leave Afghanistan, but many are not fully trained and battle-tested.
One member of Afghanistan’s Parliament told Time in 2011, “The time is not right for a transition to Afghan security forces. They are not ready. They are not well trained, and they are not commanded and organized well.”
Many analysts worry that the Taliban is simply waiting for American and NATO troops to leave before they overwhelm whatever security apparatus is left behind by the international forces.
Another potential casualty of that scenario: human rights. The Western presence in Afghanistan has increased autonomy for Afghan women, who have been able to attend school and move more freely in Afghan society without fear of retribution from the Taliban or other militant Islamists. If the Taliban is able to reassert itself, these women will be forced to take several steps back.
Partisan politics
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has not committed to a longer stay in Afghanistan, but has said that “withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan under a Romney administration will be based on conditions on the ground as assessed by our military commanders,” contrasting this approach with what he calls Obama’s “politically inspired” timetable.
Other members of his party have not been more outspoken. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz). has said, “I don’t see any kind of pressure to withdraw immediately.” McCain argues that from a “pure military, tactical standpoint, we are winning, but, what the president keeps talking about, is how quick we’re going to withdraw.”
Meanwhile, polls show that a large majority of the American public, including a strong plurality of Republicans, would like the troops to leave sooner rather than later.
In addition to the loss of lives, according the the Congressional Research Service, the U.S. has already spent approximately half a trillion dollars on the war in Afghanistan (on top of almost a trillion dollars on the war in Iraq), amid tough economic times at home.
The U.S. has also come under increasing attack in the Middle East and North Africa after last month’s release of an American-made film mocking the prophet Muhammad set off a wave of anti-Western violence across the region.
The film, “The Innocence of Muslims,” triggered outrage against the West that has been building up in much of the Muslim world for years, especially after the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan and then Iraq.
Proponents of staying longer in Afghanistan must address two issues — how much longer should the United States stay, and what can be achieved in that amount of time that cannot be achieved by 2014.