(MintPress)–In what is being seen by many as the true test for whether or not the Arab Spring was successful, Egyptians will head to the polls for their first real presidential elections in Egyptian history.
Egypt, the once major influential country in the Arab world, is now transitioning to a democracy after former Egyptian dictator and U.S. ally Hosni Mubarak, was forced to step down last February after 30 years in office. Mubarak’s trial took place in December and January.
He is accused of complicity in the killing of protesters during the protests which drove him from power. The verdict and sentencing for Mubarak, who has pleaded not guilty, are expected June 2.
While he would face the death penalty if a guilty verdict is returned, some analysts say a not guilty verdict could spark more violence in Egypt.
The military took control of the country in the wake of Mubarak’s deposal, but questions about whether it will hand over the reigns after elections take place loom largely in the minds of many.
Protests continue, as some charge that elections won’t be free and fair while the military is in power. A hunger strike commenced Sunday, with hundreds of protesters joining the cause, including Khaled Ali, a human rights lawyer and the youngest presidential candidate.
“I’m here to say I want to say to Supreme Council of the Armed Forces [SCAF] that [they are] the Supreme Council of the counter-revolution,” Ali told Al Jazeera.
Elections preview
After Tunisia, Egypt became the second country in the Middle Eastern/North African region to force its authoritarian leader out of power through popular uprising last year.
Elections, which will begin Wednesday in the Arab world’s most populous country, will pit Islamists who scored big in legislative elections against members of the former regime who have vowed a return to stability.
Political front-runners amongst the 12 candidates vying for the presidency include former Arab League head and ex-foreign minister Amr Mussa; Ahmed Shafiq, the last premier to serve under Mubarak; Abdel Moneim Abul Futouh, an independent Islamist; and the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate Mohammed Mursi.
Some have questioned how the Muslim Brotherhood, which now dominates Egypt’s parliament, will govern if elected.
The group was founded in Egypt in 1928, and is the oldest and largest Islamist movement in the world, with affiliates and branches throughout the region and adherents in Europe and the United States. It has sought a more traditional Islamic society, a report from CNN tells, “by building extensive networks and social services across the country, often filling in gaps left by the neglect of sclerotic, corrupt regimes.” The report also says that delegations of Brotherhood members have been visiting the U.S., speaking at public forums and universities, in an effort to “alleviate the fears of a still-suspicious American establishment.”
Under Mubarak, the Brotherhood was blacklisted by the U.S., however, it now meets regularly with American officials. The group has issued an 80-page document detailing its plans for the country.
Meanwhile, there has been some backlash against the members of the old regime running for office in Egypt, who are being called “felool”, a pejorative term describing their association with the previous government. In response they have sought to distance themselves from Mubarak, currently on trial for his involvement in the killings during the uprising and for corruption.
Each candidate is earning praise and drawing criticism as the elections draw nearer, though.
“Abul Fotouh promises a moderate Islamism, relying on a diverse coalition of support ranging from Salafist fundamentalists to young secular pro-democracy activists. Mursi has the strong support network of the Muslim Brotherhood, but some worry that the Brotherhood, which already dominates parliament, is monopolising politics in post-revolt Egypt. Other candidates have fewer chances of winning but still hope to make significant gains, including leftist politician Hamdeen Sabahi, moderate Islamist Selim al-Awwa, or young labour rights activist Khaled Ali,” a story in Middle East Online elaborates.
A historic moment – but how historic?
While the historic nature of the elections is being touted, not everyone is convinced the process will yield a truly free and open society.
“This is going to be the first presidential election that means something in Egypt’s history, in its 7,000 year history,” said expert in Middle East History Steven A. Cook, author of “The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square” and Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“A lot of people have said the Egyptians would never get to this point, there have been periodic spasms of violence and obviously other problems during this transition period but they are going to hold these elections, they will likely be free and fair elections and I think that’s a testament to the desire of the Egyptians to live in a more open country. It’s not going to be pretty, there are going to be tremendous political struggles going ahead, but they’ve handled themselves with a tremendous amount of dignity and its going to be quite an exhilarating experience to watch Egyptians go to the polls and vote for a president for the first time,” says Cook in an interview with Reuters.
Some critics have expressed concern about whether the military, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf), which has largely been in control of the country since Mubarak’s disposal, will relinquish its power in the wake of the election’s outcome.
The military’s leader, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, and his forces say they will step down by July 1 after a likely runoff round in mid-June between the top two candidates. What role the generals will play in the process remains unforeseen, though, and highly speculated about.
“Strikingly, all the leading candidates have so far been deferential in their statements on the military and their jealously guarded statues, secret budgets and economic empire. That suggests they will continue to wield considerable power behind the scenes — whoever ends up occupying the presidential palace. Excitement seems to be greater for the presidential race than for the parliamentary elections, which produced a sweeping majority for the Islamists who were kept out of power under Mubarak — 40 percent for the Muslim Brotherhood and another 25 percent for hardline Salafi fundamentalists.” writes The Guardian’s Middle East editor, Ian Black, in a recent article.
But some are more cautiously optimistic. Cook says, “Actually the military has been counting down the days until it can hand over governing the country on a day-to-day basis. That doesn’t mean that the military wants to relinquish power, it still wants to retain its place as the locus of power, influence and legitimacy in the political system, and that’s going to be one of the struggles going forward between a popularly elected president, a popularly elected parliament and a military that still seeks an important role in the political system. But by no means do the officers want to administer this country.”
Saturday, international watchdog Human Rights Watch, accused Egypt’s military of beating and torturing protesters arrested at a demonstration near the Defense Ministry May 4.
After interviewing victims and lawyers, the group concluded the military also failed to protect protesters from attacks by armed groups at demonstrations in Cairo’s Abbasiyya neighborhood, when a protest against the Supreme Presidential Election Commission’s exclusion of Salafist candidate Hazem Abu Ismail in the presidential elections turned into violent skirmishes with military forces.
Human Right Watch reported that “several dozen armed men without uniforms began shooting rifles and pellet guns at protesters, killing nine protesters and bystanders.”
“The brutal beating of both men and women protesters shows that military officers have no sense of limits on what they can do,” said Joe Stork, deputy Middle East and North Africa director at Human Rights Watch said in a press release. “The official law enforcement authorities may arrest people where there is evidence of wrongdoing, but it never has the right to beat and torture them.”
The US connection
Earlier this year, the U.S. announced it would be resuming $1.3 billion in annual military aid to Egypt, following a three-month crackdown on pro-democracy groups by Egypt’s interim military rulers.
The aid, which bonded the U.S. to Cairo for three decades, also serves as a cornerstone for Egypt’s 1979 peace treaty with Israel. It was put on hold over a crackdown on non-government organisations (NGOs).
The aid is conditional upon Egypt meeting its obligations under its peace treaty with Israel. The Muslim Brotherhood, and other politicians, have stated that they would like to review the 1979 treaty if elected.
The State Department has said that the U.S. has an interest in maintaining military and economic ties to Egypt. “On the democracy side, Egypt had made more progress in 16 months than in the last 60 years,” a top U.S. official was quoted by AlJazeera as saying on condition of anonymity, and adding, “Yet Egypt’s transition to democracy is not yet complete, and more work remains to protect universal rights and freedoms, and the role of NGOs and civil society. These decisions reflect our overarching goal: to maintain our strategic partnership with an Egypt made stronger and more stable by a successful transition to democracy.”
The military aid is used toward paying U.S. military and security contractors who supply equipment and services and training, to the Egyptian armed forces.
Egypt the second largest recipient of U.S. aid after Israel.