Recent studies have indicated that teen birth rates — particularly among Hispanics — have dropped significantly. While this may represent a shifting of societal attitudes and the inevitable consequence of a recession, it may also suggest larger fertility trends that speak to the future economic health of the nation.
According to a May 2013 data brief from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the national birth rate for 15- to 19-year-olds has dropped to a record low of 31.3 live births per 1,000 teenagers in 2011 — a decline of 25 percent since 2007. While all racial groups recorded lower birth rates, Hispanic teens saw the largest drop: from 75.3 live births per 1,000 in 2007 to 49.4 per 1,000 in 2011.
The drop was significant enough to make the Hispanic teen birth rate statistically equivalent to the non-Hispanic Black teen birth rate — which dropped from 62.0 live births in 2007 to 47.4 in 2011.
Minnesota, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Nevada and Idaho have all seen declines in birth rates in excess of 30 percent. The largest shifts in birth rates occurred on the Pacific Coast, the South and the Upper Midwest. No significant change was recorded in North Dakota and West Virginia. No state reported an increase in birth rates.
For the last three decades, teen births have been trending downwards. In 1991, for instance, the live birth rate for non-Hispanic Black teens was 118.2 per 1,000 teenagers. Since 1991, the birth rate for African-American teens dropped by 59.9 percent, while the birth rate for American Indian teens dropped over the same time period 57 percent. The Hispanic population saw a drop of 52.8 percent.
However, the steepest drops were seen after the start of the Great Recession, in which — over a 5-year period — fertility rates dropped 25 percent.
Pew Research has attributed the decline to the faltering economy. Hispanics, hardest-hit by the recession, saw a fertility rate drop larger than that of non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks combined.
A 2009 Pew survey of Hispanics aged 16 to 19 showed that Hispanic teenagers have an overwhelmingly negative view of underage pregnancy: 75 percent of all surveyed feel that the “prevalence of teens having babies is not good for society.” This is a view shared by 90 percent of all American teenagers. Sixty-nine percent of surveyed Latino teenagers felt that teen parenthood hinders the ability to achieve one’s goals.
While commitments to education and advancement have contributed significantly to the decline in the teen birth rate, this cannot be credited as the sole cause. Nationwide and among all age demographics, the fertility rate has dropped for the first time in history to a point that is insufficient to offset the mortality rate.
The immigration question
The national fertility rate — at 2.06 births per woman, or 3.96 million live births in 2012 — is at one of the lowest levels in the last century. Currently, the national fertility rate is lower than the lowest recorded rate for the Great Depression and is at par with lows seen during the energy crisis of the 1970s.
It would require a replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman to maintain the current population. While the current numbers do not suggest a population shrinkage, they do suggest stagnation in the growth of the population.
The recession and lower level of immigration has helped create an imbalance between children and retirees. According to a USC study, the economic burden on a child born in 2015 will be nearly twice that of a child born in 1985.
“These are two trends going in the opposite direction,” said Dowell Myers, director of the Population Dynamics Research Group at the University of Southern California, in a press release. “We will be increasingly dependent economically and socially on a smaller number of children.”
Historically, birth rates have dropped in relation to slowdowns in the economy. However, new attitudes toward work and childbearing have convinced more people to wait longer to have children, to have fewer children, or to forego parenting altogether. When this factor is combined with clampdowns on immigration, the nation is experiencing shrinkage in the under-15 population.
In California, for example, where nearly half of all infants are born to immigrant mothers, the population has taken a major hit. The statewide birth rate has declined by 5 percent.
The major immigration states — Florida, Texas, California, Minnesota, Nevada and Arizona — are the states with the largest drops in fertility. Since 2000, the number of legal permanent resident admissions to the country have steadily decreased, according to the Department of Homeland Security, and the undocumented immigration rate has dropped slightly from 2011 levels, according to Pew Research.
The graying of America
The decline in population growth will negatively affect the nation’s economic future. With a diminished population base, there will be fewer taxpayers, fewer consumers and fewer workers. In light of a larger-than-usual pool of soon-to-be retirees with the baby boomer generation, this may amount to a catastrophic situation.
“One of the most important strategies is invest in the younger generation, the human capital,” Myers said to USA Today. “We can actually survive with fewer kids but we need to bring them along … At the end of the decade, when Baby Boomer retirement hits us really hard, at that point we’ll be begging for workers.”
As the ratio of children to retirees shrinks, the demand for services will rise as the means to pay for them drops. This can create a permanent deficit that may translate into a lower standard of living, increased taxes and continued reductions spending on social and essential services.
This, however, is not just an American problem. Globally, fertility rates are dropping. In Italy, the fertility rate is 1.4 children per woman. Only 14 percent of Italians are under the age of 15, while people age 65 and older make up 21 percent of the population. Italy’s population growth is at 0 percent.
Japan’s rate is also at 1.4 births per woman, but the nation has an under-15 population of just 13 percent and more than 24 percent over 65. Japan has negative population growth.
The United States has an under-15 population of 20 percent and over-65 population of 14 percent. The nation is growing at a rate of 0.9 percent.
As reported by The New York Times, more than half of the world’s population lives in nations that now have birth rates insufficient to sustain their population.
“According to the Census Bureau, the total increase in global manpower between 2010 and 2030 will be just half the increase we experienced in the two decades that just ended,” The New York Times reported. “At the same time, according to work by the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, the growth in educational attainment around the world is slowing.”
The nation and the world are facing an ever-graying population. For the sake of economic growth and national vitality, a solution must be found before the burden the youth must carry becomes too heavy to lift.